Media Outlook 2019: Spell Marketing with a ‘D’

The January marketing calendar in New York has included for the past decade or so a certain can’t-miss event of the Direct Marketing Club of New York. In 60 fly-by minutes, 100-plus advertising and marketing professionals hear a review of the previous year in marketing spend, a media outlook for the current year and macro-economic trends driving both.

The January marketing calendar in New York has included for the past decade or so a certain can’t-miss event of the Direct Marketing Club of New York. In 60 fly-by minutes, 100-plus advertising and marketing professionals hear a review of the previous year in marketing spend, a media outlook for the current year and macro-economic trends driving both.

Bruce Biegel, senior managing director at Winterberry Group, keeps everyone engaged, taking notes and thinking about their own experiences in the mix of statistics regarding digital, mobile, direct mail, TV and programmatic advertising.

“We will be OK if we can manage the Shutdown, Trump, China, Mueller, Congress and Brexit,” he noted, all of which weigh on business confidence.

Suffice it to say, marketing organizations and business, in general must navigate an interesting journey. Biegel reports estimated U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.3 percent in 2019 down from 3 percent in 2018, while total marketing spending growth in 2018 had dipped below its historic level of exceeding two times GDP growth.

In 2019, we are poised for 5.3 percent growth in advertising and marketing spending a slight gain from the 5.2 percent growth of 2018 over 2017.

Watch the Super Bowl, By All Means But Offline Dominance Is Diminishing

Look under the hood, and you see what the big drivers are. Offline spending including sponsorships, linear TV, print, radio, outdoor and direct mail will spot anemic growth, combined, of 0.1 percent in 2019. (Of these, direct mail and sponsorships will each post growth of more than 3 percent, Winterberry Group predicts.)

But online spending growth display, digital video, social, email, digital radio, digital out-of-home, and search will grow by 15.5 percent. Has offline media across all categories finally reached its zenith? Perhaps. (See Figure 1.)

Figure 1.

Credit: Winterberry Group, 2019

Digital media spend achieved 50 percent of offline media spend for the first time in 2018. In 2019, it may reach 60 percent! So who should care?

We do! We are the livers and breathers of data, and data is in the driver’s seat. Biegel sees data spending growing by nearly 6 percent this year totaling $21.27 billion. Of this, $9.66 billion will be offline data spending, primarily direct mail. TV data spending (addressable, OTT) will reach $1.8 billion, digital data $7.85 billion, and email data spend $1.96 billion (see Figure 2.)

Figure 2.

Credit: Winterberry Group, 2019

Tortured CMOs: Unless She’s a Data Believer

Marketing today and tomorrow is not marketing yesterday. If marketing leadership does not recognize and understand data’s contribution to ad measurement, attribution and business objective ROI, then it’s time for a new generation to lead and succeed. Marketing today is spelled with a D: Data-Driven.

Unfortunately we don’t have all the data we need to manage Shutdown, Trump, China, Mueller, Congress and Brexit. That’s where sheer luck and gut instincts may still have a valid role. Sigh.

‘Who Cares?’ Online May Overtake Offline Spending in 2018

I found it quaint when my server at a hotel restaurant came up to me and said this morning, “Would you like to see today’s paper with your breakfast?”

server
“waiter,” Creative Commons license. | Credit: Flickr by faungg’s photos

I found it quaint when my server at a hotel restaurant came up to me and said this morning, “Would you like to see today’s paper with your breakfast?”

“No, thank you,” I said. I actually had had this week’s print issue of The Economist with me, and opened that to read, instead. As I looked around the room however, most everyone who was reading anything was doing so on their smartphones.

While my youthful eyes (that’s a joke) still prefer print for reading, and I still prefer print for pictures, the truth is that even my own preferences for print in many instances have fallen away to smartphone, tablet, and PC demands and consumption habits. It’s as if print media has emerged as a quiet luxury — a respite from digital content and its potential many distractions.

Two weeks ago, Bruce Biegel of The Winterberry Group provided his annual “Outlook for Data-Driven Marketing for 2018,” along with a recap for 2017, at the Direct Marketing Club of New York. Two excellent summaries of the presentation are here and here, and the presentation is available for a download at the Winterberry Group site, currently. Scroll down on the home page.

During the presentation, I tweeted out the fact that online ad spend (display, search, email, mobile, affiliate, lead gen and social) he predicts will overtake offline ad spend (direct mail, teleservices, shopper and event marketing) for the first time in 2018 — with measured media, traditional media (broadcast TV, radio, outdoor, magazine, newspapers and cinema), still holding onto the largest slice. One of my industry colleagues tweeted back, “Who cares?”

Winterberry Gorup report
Credit: “Outlook for Data-Driven Marketing – 2018″ by The Winterberry Group

I suppose meeting a milestone such as this truly is inevitable, and matters only inasmuch as a historical marker of changing patterns of media consumption — and a growing comfort level for data-driven marketing. Advertisers are only chasing consumers where they are, after all. Bruce even remarked how Winterberry Group even underestimated the rapidity of the offline-to-online shift in 2017, with direct mail spend falling faster than anticipated. (It is not without note that Bruce characterized direct mail as perhaps the most “measurable, accountable” of all media.)

The next “Who cares?” moment may be if and when traditional media spend is overtaken by either offline or online media spend (or both of them), as advertisers seek out such “measurable, accountable” ad spend over the straightforward brand spend that tends to dominate traditional media categories. As chief marketing officers become more data-conversant, will they seek out more direct customer engagement over impressions? Will cost-per-thousand be supplanted by cost-per-action, even within traditional media categories? With spending on data set to grow in 2018 by 5.7 percent, offline ad spend by 3.8 percent, and digital ad spend including mobile by 15.2 percent — while traditional media is projected to decline by 0.8 percent (quite remarkable for a year with the Winter Olympics and mid-term Elections) — one might expect the “Who cares?” moment for traditional media may be coming soon.

But who cares? There will always be a role for branding — even as consumer interaction as an objective rises. Omnichannel marketing, single data views of the customer, and “right place, right offer, right moment” are largely directional and aspirational, and are well-worth pursuing. But 100 percent efficient ad spending will always be elusive.

I’m not even certain the consumer wants to be all that much engaged. Consumers don’t always consume — they sometimes sleep, eat, relax and recharge, too. And it’s time for me to finish my breakfast.

5 Tips for Successful o2o Channel Leaping

The most strategically planned offline direct marketing effort can be sabotaged by weak links in an online sales order processing system. Moving a prospect from any offline channel marketing to online ordering has its clear benefits, but can be tricky. Whether from direct mail, broadcast, or other print source, your offline to online (o2o) channel redirection must be carefully designed, tested, and refined to maximize the conversion process. So here are five recommendations to ensure a seamless o2o leap.

The most strategically planned offline direct marketing effort can be sabotaged by weak links in an online sales order processing system. Moving a prospect from any offline channel marketing to online ordering has its clear benefits, but can be tricky. Whether from direct mail, broadcast, or other print source, your offline to online (o2o) channel redirection must be carefully designed, tested, and refined to maximize the conversion process. So here are five recommendations to ensure a seamless o2o leap.

In a past era, we direct marketers pitched our offer to our lists. When the prospect decided to buy, they would use a reply envelope to mail or phone their response. While that still happens today, more and more direct marketers prefer to drive a prospect to the web.

There is often a disconnect between concept and execution of taking a prospect from offline to online. We’re so close to the process that we sometimes assume a seamless o2o flow, but while fumbling around a keyboard, the prospect’s attention can be diverted. The online order experience can be clunky or even confusing. Sometimes too much is asked on the online order screen, and information overload sets in. Or we assume the customer is tech-savvy when in fact, they’re not. Orders and carts are abandoned because the prospect gives up.

What to do to ensure a seamless o2o leap? Here are five recommendations:

  1. Clarity Rules: Create a detailed flow chart of every possible path a prospect could take before they press “buy” to see if there is any unanswered or confusing language or visuals. Ensure that there are no dead-ends, and allow them to back up. And, be sure the form they’re returning to is still populated with their original entries, rather than being shown an infuriating screen full of blank fields.
  2. Roadmap the Journey: Manage expectations for your prospect with an overview of the process, why it’ll be worth their time, and how easy and quick it will be, especially if placing an order has multiple options.
  3. Wireframe to Visualize: If you, the marketer, are having trouble visualizing how it all works, just imagine how confused your customer will be. Developing even a crude wireframe will help ensure you don’t overlook something, or that the process unfolds logically and obviously.
  4. Clear Copy: Write to the reading level of your audience, but remember that online channels tend to be one where people are more rushed and scanning. They don’t always read for detail. Make it clear and simple.
  5. Tell and Sell with Video: People may not read copy as closely online, but they are apt to invest time watching a video with tips on how to place their order. It can save the customer time, and help reduce abandoned carts.

The back-end programming of online order systems are usually someone else’s responsibility. But, if you’re the marketer or copywriter, you need to put serious thought and effort into the customer-facing side, so it’s clear, friendly, and quick. Your prospect forms a lasting impression of your entire organization when you have an o2o channel leap requirement. And, if it’s muddled or worse, you may never have another opportunity to make it positive.

The Future of Online Is Offline

I find it offensive when marketers call anyone an “online person.” Let’s get this straight: At the end of some not-so-memorable transaction with you, if I opt in for your how-bad-can-it-be email promotions, or worse, neglect to uncheck the pre-checked check-box that says “You will hear from us from time to time” (which could turn into a daily commitment for the rest of my cognitive life, or, until I decide finding that invisible unsubscribe link presented in the font size of a few pixels is a better option than hitting the delete key every day), I get to be an online person to you? How nice.

I find it offensive when marketers call anyone an “online person.” Let’s get this straight: At the end of some not-so-memorable transaction with you, if I opt in for your how-bad-can-it-be email promotions, or worse, neglect to uncheck the pre-checked check-box that says “You will hear from us from time to time” (which could turn into a daily commitment for the rest of my cognitive life, or, until I decide finding that invisible unsubscribe link presented in the font size of a few pixels is a better option than hitting the delete key every day), I get to be an online person to you? How nice.

What if I receive an email offer from you, research the heck out of the product on the Internet, and then show up at a store to have instant gratification? Does that make me an offline person now? Sorry to break your channel-oriented marketing mind, but hey, I am just a guy. I am neither an online person nor an offline person; which, by the way, happens to be a dirty word in some pretentious marketing circles (as in “Eew, you’re in the offline space?!”).

Marketers often forget to recognize that all this “Big Data” stuff (or any size data, for that matter) and channel management tools are just tools to get to people. In the age of Big Data, it shouldn’t be so hard to know “a lot” about a person, and tailor messages and offers for that person. Then why is that I get confusing offers all the time? How is that I receive multiple types of credit card offers from the same bank within weeks? Don’t they know all about my banking details? Don’t they have some all-inclusive central data depository for all that kind of stuff?

The sad and short answer to all this is that it really doesn’t matter if the users of such databases still think only in terms of her division, his channel assignment, and only through to the very next campaign. And such mindsets may even alter the structure of the marketing database, where everything is organized by division, product or channel. That is how one becomes an online person, who might as well be invisible when it comes to his offline activities.

What is the right answer, then? Both database and users of such databases should be “buyer-centric” or “individual-centric” at the core. In a well-designed marketing database, every variable should be a descriptor for the individual, regardless of the data sources or channels through which she happens to have navigated to end up in the database. There, what she has been buying, her typical spending level, her pricing threshold, channels that she uses to listen, channels that she employs to make purchases or to express herself, stores she visited, lapsed time since her last activities by each channel, contact/response history, her demographic profile, etc. should all be nicely lined up as “her” personal record. That is how modern marketing databases should be structured. Just putting various legacy datasets in one place isn’t going to cut it, even if some individual ID is assigned to everyone in every table. Through some fancy Big Data tools, you may be able to store and retrieve records for every transaction for the past 20 years, but such records describe transactions, not people. Again, it’s all about people.

Why should marketing databases be “buyer-centric”? (1) Nobody is one-dimensional, locked into one channel or division of some marketer, and (2) Individualized targeting and messaging can only be actualized through buyer-centric data platforms. Want to use advanced statistical models? You would need individualized structure because the main goal of any model for marketing is to rank “people” in terms of your target’s susceptibility to certain offers or products. If an individual’s information is scattered all over the database, requiring lots of joins and manipulations, then that database simply isn’t model-ready.

Further, when I look into the future, I see the world where one-click checkout is the norm, even in the offline world. The technology to identify ourselves and to make payment will be smaller and more ubiquitous. Today, when we go to a drug store, we need to bring out the membership card, coupons and our credit card to finish the transaction. Why couldn’t that be just one step? If I identify myself with an ID card or with some futuristic device that I would wear such as a phone, glasses or a wristwatch, shouldn’t that be enough to finish the deal and let me out of the store? When that kind of future becomes a reality (in the not-too distant future), will marketers still think and behave within that channel-centric box? Will we even attempt to link what just happened at the store to other activities the person engaged in online or offline? Not if some guy is in charge of that “one” new channel, no matter how fancy that department title would be.

I have been saying this all along, but let me say it again. The future of online is offline. The distinction of such things would be as meaningless as debating if interactive TV of the future should be called a TV or a computer. Is an iPhone a phone or mobile computer? My answer? Who cares? We should be concentrating our efforts on talking to the person who is looking at the device, whether it is through a computer screen, mobile screen or TV screen. That is the first step toward the buyer-centric mindset; that it is and always has been about people, not channel or devices that would come and go. And it is certainly not about some marketing department that may handle just one channel or one product at a time.

The Big Data movement should about the people. The only difference this new wave brings is the amount of data that we need to deal with and the speed in which we need to operate. Soon, marketers should be able to do things in less than a second that used to take three months. Displaying an individually customized real-time offer built with past and present data through fancy statistical model via hologram won’t be just a scene in a science fiction movie (remember the department store scene in “Minority Report”?). And if marketing databases are not built in a buyer-centric structure, someone along the line will waste a lot of time just to understand what the target individual is all about. That could have been OK in the last century, but not in the age of abundant and ubiquitous data.