Politics Aside, At Least Folks Are Focused on the USPS – Let’s Keep It Up

The United States Postal Service (USPS) is a vital institution in our economy, democracy, and history – and future. It provides for confidential communication in a timely and affordable manner, paid for entirely by ratepayers rather than taxpayers. And, while we were on summer vacation, the ugly state of today’s politics brought it to the top of the news cycle.

Well, maybe that’s a good thing.

The U.S. mail stream also is a vehicle for millions of properly cast votes during primary and general elections, a process that even President Trump’s campaign knows is true, and in the frenzy of this moment, that reality must be promoted and protected. And although the 2020 U.S. Census is primarily an online event this year, mail notices have gone to all residential addresses to drive populations to the counting website. Earlier this month, the Census reported that self-reporting has accounted for an estimated 63.3% of all U.S. households thus far – so now field operations are underway to count the rest before Sept. 30.

As citizens, being counted in the Census ranks up there with voting and serving on juries. As non-citizens seeking citizenship, being counted may be the only voice one has at all. Many of us in direct and data marketing know how crucial, too, Census commercial products are to business. For all the billions spent on targeted advertising, and billions more on general advertising, understanding Census statistical areas provides valuable insights and informs strategies.

All of this only underscores the role USPS has in executing all of this. If dirty politics is what it takes to call attention to USPS operations and “fix” what needs fixing at the Postal Service, then so be it. Floating loan guarantees is a crucial start, in my humble opinion. A reinvigorated attempt during the next Congress at a postal reform bill might help, too, to soften the blow from the 2006 law – with its outrageous healthcare pre-funding mandates, for one.

It’s wrong to summarily dismiss the Postmaster General or his intentions. If his goal is to increase USPS efficiencies, then all parties can rally around that objective – as long as service levels are maintained. Privatization, however, is likely a non-starter, and may even require Constitutional changes. If the goal – as some critics maintain – is to throw an election, let’s uncover the truth of it. In the least, many states have been conducting elections by mail for years with integrity – which the Secretary of State in Oregon, a Republican, maintains. At least, the Postmaster General has halted mail processing cuts, with his stated goal of long-term sustainability, until after the November election.

Direct Mail – With Integrity

So what does all this mean to direct mailers? I love John Miglautsch’s message: “Direct mail ain’t dead.” Miglautsch says too many marketers are still prone to “digital delusional” thinking that digital can replace direct mail altogether. (Please, folks, test first – you’ll see the mail moment is real.) The Winterberry Group in January predicted a small uptick in direct mail spending in 2020 to $41.6 billion, but reported in June a Q2 drop in USPS mail volume of 33%. It’s clear that at least temporarily, marketers slashed direct mail budgets much more than their digital counterparts.

Yet direct mail has supreme advantages: It’s personalized, and free from identity challenges that still exist in digital. (See the latest Winterberry Research on data spending on digital identity management.) It’s secure and confidential. Direct mail also is a direct relationship – there are no intermediary infrastructures where audience, measurement, and attribution data can be unavailable to the advertiser. In many, many ways, direct marketers hope for an addressable digital media future that matches the offline addressable direct mail realities of today. We’re making progress in addressable media across all channels, but we’re not there yet.

From a direct mail perspective, perhaps the best contribution of digital is that (1) it has taught more U.S. households to shop direct; and (2) it has lessened competition in the mailbox. The two media work in tandem powerfully. Less clutter in the physical mail box opens the opportunity for increased response. All this assumes, however, that direct mail delivery can be predicted in-home reliably. That’s why we cannot monkey around with USPS service standards.

So fill out your Census form, if you haven’t already. Vote in the November election. And make sure USPS (and direct mail advertising) is getting the attention – and protection – commensurate to its powerful contribution to our nation.

A Map or a Matrix? Identity Management Is More Complex By the Day

A newly published white paper on how advertisers and brands can recognize unique customers across marketing platforms underscores just how tough this important job is for data-driven marketers.

As technologists and policymakers weigh in themselves on the data universe – often without understanding the full ramifications of what they do (or worse, knowing so but proceeding anyway) – data flows on the Internet and on mobile platforms are being dammed, diverted, denuded, and divided.

In my opinion, these developments are not decidedly good for advertising – which relies on such data to deliver relevance in messaging, as well as attribution and measurement. There is a troubling anti-competition mood in the air. It needs to be reckoned with.

Consider these recent developments:

  • Last week, the European Court of Justice rendered a decision that overturned “Privacy Shield” – the safe harbor program that upward of 5,000 companies rely upon to move data securely between the European Union and the United States. Perhaps we can blame U.S. government surveillance practices made known by Edward Snowden, but the impact will undermine hugely practical, beneficial, and benign uses of data – including for such laudable aims as identity management, and associated advertising and marketing uses.
  • Apple announced it will mandate an “opt-in” for mobile identification data used for advertising and marketing beginning with iOS 14. Apple may report this is about privacy, but it is also a business decision to keep Apple user data from other large digital companies. How can effective cross-app advertising survive (and be measured) when opt-in rates are tiny? What about the long-tail and diversity of content that such advertising finances?
  • Google’s announcement that it plans to cease third-party cookies – as Safari and Mozilla have already done – in two years’ time (six months and ticking) is another erosion on data monetization used for advertising. At least Google is making a full-on attempt to work with industry stakeholders (Privacy Sandbox) to replace cookies with something else yet to be formulated. All the same, ad tech is getting nervous.
  • California’s Attorney General – in promulgating regulation in conjunction with the enforcement of the California Consumer Privacy Act (in itself an upset of a uniform national market for data flows, and an undermining of interstate commerce) – came forth with a new obligation that is absent from the law, but asked for by privacy advocates: Companies will be required to honor a browser’s global default signals for data collection used for advertising, potentially interfering with a consumer’s own choice in the matter. It’s the Do Not Track debate all over again, with a decision by fiat.

These external realities for identity are only part of the complexity. Mind you, I haven’t even explored here the volume, variety, and velocity of data that make data collection, integration, analysis, and application by advertisers both vital and difficult to do. As consumers engage with brands on a seemingly ever-widening number of media channels and data platforms, there’s nothing simple about it. No wonder Scott Brinker’s Mar Tech artwork is becoming more and more an exercise in pointillism.

Searching for a Post-Cookie Blueprint

So it is in this flurry (or fury) of policy developments that the Winterberry Group issued its most recent paper, “Identity Outlook 2020: The Evolution of Identity in a Privacy-First, Post-Cookie World.”

Its authors take a more positive view of recent trends – reflecting perhaps a resolve that the private sector will seize the moment:

“We believe that regulation and cookie deprecation are a positive for the future health and next stage of growth for the advertising and marketing industry as they are appropriate catalysts for change in an increasingly privacy-aware consumer environment,” write authors Bruce Biegel, Charles Ping, and Michael Harrison, all of whom are with the Winterberry Group.

The researchers report five emerging identity management processes, each with its own regulatory risk. Brands may pursue any one or combination of these methodologies:

  • “A proprietary ID based on authenticated first-party data where the brand or media owner has established a unique ID for use on their owned properties and for matching with partners either directly or through privacy safe environments (e.g.: Facebook, Google, Amazon).
  • “A common ID based on a first-party data match to a PII- [personally identifiable information] based reference data set in order to enable scale across media providers while maintaining high levels of accuracy.
  • “A common ID based on a first-party data match to a third-party, PII-based reference data set in order to enable scale across media providers while maintaining high levels of accuracy; leverages a deterministic approach, with probabilistic matching to increase reach.
  • “A second-party data environment based on clean environments with anonymous ID linking to allow privacy safe data partnerships to be created.
  • “A household ID based on IP address and geographic match.”

The authors offer a chart that highlights some of the regulatory risks with each approach.

“As a result of the diversity of requirements across the three ecosystems (personalization, programmatic and ATV [advanced television]) the conclusion that Winterberry Group draws from the market is that multiple identity solutions will be required and continue to evolve in parallel. To achieve the goals of consumer engagement and customer acquisition marketers will seek to apply a blend of approaches based on the availability of privacy-compliant identifiers and the suitability of the approach for specific channels and touchpoints.”

A blend of approaches? Looks like I’ll need a navigator as well as the map. As one of the six key takeaways, the report authors write:

“Talent gaps, not tech gaps: One of the issues holding the market back is the lack of focus in the brand/agency model that is dedicated to understanding the variety of privacy-compliant identity options. We expect that the increased market complexity in identity will require Chief Data Officers to expand their roles and place themselves at the center of efforts to reduce the media silos that separate paid, earned and owned use cases. The development of talent that overlaps marketing/advertising strategy, data/data science and data privacy will be more critical in the post-cookie, privacy-regulated market than ever before.”

There’s much more in the research to explore than one blog post – so do your data prowess a favor and download the full report here.

And let’s keep the competition concerns open and continuing. There’s more at stake here than simply a broken customer identity or the receipt of an irrelevant ad.

How the Impact of COVID-19 Is Changing Marketing

Well, it’s not as if we can start 2020 all over again — we’re already halfway through this year thus far. Yet, we can say one thing, COVID-19 and its recessionary impacts may be hanging around awhile. How may this have changed marketing mid-year, and possibly changed it permanently?

Well, it’s not as if we can start 2020 all over again — we’re already halfway through this year thus far. Yet, we can say one thing: COVID-19 and its recessionary impacts may be hanging around awhile. How may this have changed marketing mid-year, and possibly changed it permanently?

Such prognostications have kept The Winterberry Group, a marketing research consultancy, plenty busy since March: reading the tea leaves of government data, industry interviews, marketing dashboards, econometric algorithms, and the like. Principal Bruce Biegel told a Direct Marketing Club of New York audience this past week that indeed June has been better than May, which was better than April — when the U.S. (and much of the global) economy was in free fall.

So what’s underway and what’s in store for us midyear? Have we turned a corner?

Our Comeback Will Not Be a U-Turn — ‘Swoosh!’

When unemployment shoots up to 17.1%, and 40 million American jobs either furlough or disappear, there’s going to be a lag effect. The “wallet” recession is upon us, as consumers hang onto their savings, or eat through them, so there’s not going to be the same level of demand that drives upward of two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

New York City is a COVID-19 epicenter — and the commercial real estate market may take five to 10 years to recover, reports The Economist (subscription required). Knowledge workers will return, eventually. But densely populated urban centers, where innovations accelerate the economy, may look and feel different for some time, and that in and of itself could hamper national and global growth. Can other innovation clusters stave off the virus to protect collaboration?

And then there’s our world of advertising. Biegel sees digital being a “winner,” as traditional media continues to take a drubbing. Linear TV spending dropped by a quarter this quarter, and direct mail by half. Experiential and sponsorship spending has been slashed by 75%, as concerts, live sports, conferences, and festivals all took a public health-ordered hiatus. Yet, even in digital categories, Q2 has yelled “ouch.”

Email is the only channel to have held its own, though pricing pressure has cut margins. Social, search, and digital display all have posted drops from 25% to 40% during the quarter — and though all our eyes were home watching Disney+, Netflix, and the like, even OTT/addressable TV ad spending was down by 5%. With the Newfronts coming this week, it will be interesting to see what types of digital media may post gains.

So if June’s “recovery” in media spend is any indication, Q3 (sans Olympics) and Q4 (yes, we’re still having an Election, last time I checked) should be solid though not buoyant. Biegel says it may be a “swoosh” recovery — think Nike’s logo — down fast, but up again slowly, steadily and resiliently. Which begs the questions: Can ad businesses, business models, and brands cope with a new reality?

The “new normal” is about coming out of the COVID-19 crisis — and half of executives surveyed by The Winterberry Group aren’t expecting miracles:

Medium-Term Budget Cuts

IAB-Winterberry Group State of Data (2020)

 Q3 Will Start a Recovery … of Sorts

Source: Advertiser Perceptions, Pivotal Research Group (2020), as reported by Winterberry Group

And, Biegel reported, that it may indeed take to 2024 — with COVID-19 firmly in a rear view mirror — for a recovery to be complete, according to IPG Mediabrands Magna. It is predicting a 4.4% ad spend contraction this year, a 4% recovery next year, and “subdued” results thereafter until mid-decade.

So How Have We Changed — and Will These New Behaviors Stick?

Some effects, though, may indeed have permanence in how Americans consume media — perhaps hastening trends already underway, or creating a whole rethink of how we act as consumers. Consider these impacts:

  • Streaming to TVs more than doubled during COVID-19 crisis. Have we rewired our video consumption habits away from scheduled programming for good?
  • Mobile data traffic surged 380% in March alone. Consumers have taken to their smartphones everywhere — so how has mobile viewing altered consumer’s screen habits across devices, and will it stick?
  • DTC brands and catalogs know all about remote selling — and so do millions of consumers who have now come to love shopping this way.
  • Video game use is up 60% — opening the door to more in-game advertising opportunities. This may change the mix of brands seeking to engage consumers there.
  • In January there were 280,000 posted job openings in data analytics. There are 21,000 today. More than half of marketers expect predictive modeling and segmentation to occupy their marketing strategy concerns for the balance of 2020.
  • Tangible value matters. Consumers will be demanding more pricing benefits from brand loyalty, and less VIP experiences. We may be getting tired of lockdowns but we are steadfast in a recession, savings conscious mindset.
  • Business travel – yes, your clients may be returning to the office, but do they really want to see YOU? What can B2B marketers and sellers achieve virtually?

It’s ironic, Biegel said, that privacy laws and the crumbling cookie are making customer recognition harder in the addressable media ecosystem, just as consumers expect and demand to be recognized. Identity resolution platforms will evolve to cope with these new marketplace realities — both of which are independent of COVID-19 – but the solutions will bring forth a blend of technologies, processes, and people yet to be fully formulated. These are still open and important marketplace issues.

So assuming we’re healthful health-wise, we have some challenges ahead in ad land. I’m glad to have some guideposts in this unprecedented time.

2020: A Big Year for Media Spend Will Underscore Data’s Role in Marketing Strategy

With the longest U.S. economic growth span on record, one might think the wheels may be about to come off of the economy — and marketing spend along with it. Not so, says Bruce Biegel, senior marketing partner at The Winterberry Group, during his annual forecast about marketing strategy.

It is the best of times.

With the longest U.S. economic growth span on record, one might think the wheels may be about to come off of the economy — and marketing spend along with it. Not so, says Bruce Biegel, senior marketing partner at The Winterberry Group, during his Direct Marketing Club of New York annual presentation, “The Outlook for Data Driven Advertising & Marketing 2020.”

marketing strategy
Source: Winterberry Group (2020), with Permission | Credit: Winterberry Group

Sure, there is caution. The Great Recession displaced many — and served to accelerate digital disruption from retail to finance to certainly marketing, forever. Perhaps businesses have never felt safe, sound, and secure ever since. One might call it “wise agitation.” And it really has been consumer spending that has served as the primary driver of growth, particularly in 2019.

Not the R Word …

Outside of business caution and flat earnings, where are the signs of another recession? They are hard to find.

Inflation and wage growth are hardly sputtering — even as the nation’s unemployment rates are at record lows. Trade rows and impeachment proceedings only appear to buoy the stock market. Even inside the world of marketing, privacy restrictions have not diminished the luster of data deployed for marketing and insight. And with the Olympics and a General Election this year, it should be times aplenty for many media channels, agencies, data providers, and tech companies — as these events are traditional hallmarks of spending.

So who are some of the winners in the current marketing and media environment?

… But plenty of D, Even Still

D, as in Direct: Biegel noted that “Buy Direct” is creating continuous rise and sale in DTC [direct to consumer] brands. The subscription economy is booming and traditional distribution channels — read, retail — continue with a “D” of their own, “disintermediation.”

“The five-year growth (through 2019) of DTC retail is four times that of the retail market revenues — 7.64% growth vs. 1.78%,” he reports.

That doesn’t translate to digital-first success, however, as such approaches are not scaling as rising costs in paid social, for example, are inhibiting customer acquisition.

marketing strategy
Source: Winterberry Group Spend Estimates (2020)

D, as in Digital: Online media spending overall grew by 19.1% in 2019 — compared with a 5.9% decline in offline media spending for the same year. Among all digital media categories in 2019, paid search grabbed the largest share — followed by display and paid social. Yet search spending “only” grew by 13.2%, compared to 21% growth for display, and 23% growth for paid social. For 2020, online media spending will continue to climb — reaching $166.4 billion in spending, while offline media will reverse its decline and post a 2.3% climb this year (remember, Olympics and Elections) to $223.1 billion.

D, as in Data: Data spending also posted healthful growth in 2019 — up by 5% — with another 6.2% growth expected in 2020. Is data working harder for marketers — as in, increasing marketing efficiency? Possibly. Spending on offline data dropped 5.5% in 2019 — while spending on email data and analytics posted 22.4% growth, and spending on digital media data and analytics (other than email) grew by 14.4%. Yet businesses are wholly satisfied with their own level of “data-centricity.” Biegel says, “Organizations are slightly more ‘data-centric’ this year than when asked in 2017 — on the whole, industry data-centricity is not progressing as envisioned.”

marketing strategy
Source: IAB-Winterberry Group Data-Centric Org (2020)

What’s Driving Data Strategy at Businesses?

Beigel reports three primary facilitators:

  • A desire to deliver better customer experiences;
  • Heightened regulatory compliance requirements and need to honor consumer preferences; and,
  • Increased demand to better leverage both first- and third-party data assets.

With a data-for-marketing marketplace in the United States now valued — both offline and online —- at $23 billion, those are three very important drivers that marketing professionals needs to get right. Or else our C-suite credibility may be diminished.

Artificial intelligence also has benefited from this reverence for data. Beigel reports that $11 billion has been invested globally in AI in the past five years — with 80% of marketers seeing AI “revolutionize” marketing in the next five years. Much of this investment is set on drawing insights from both structured and unstructured data sources.

And Where Are There Lingering Concerns?

Besides enterprise command of data assets, which could go either superbly or not, there are other concerns — both macro and micro, Biegel reports.

U.S. economic growth will likely slow to 1.9%, with global growth at pronounced risk. Corporate earnings may disappoint — leading to tightened purse strings. Tariffs may be reduced – nation by nation, region by region — but to what immediate impact? In short, Biegel says, “Limited tailwinds indicate that growth must be earned or bought.”

Among offline media there will be pockets of growth — outdoor, shopper marketing, linear and addressable TV — though direct mail will only squeak growth, with radio, newspaper, and magazines continuing their declines (even as their digital counterparts grow).

Search, display, and social will continue to dominate online media spend — but less mature channels, such as influencer marketing, digital video, and OTT [over-the-top] streaming, and digital audio will post rapid growth from much smaller bases. That portends good times for online data — but is it all rosy?

marketing strategy
Source: Winterberry Group Spend Estimates (2020)

For example, are customer acquisition and retention costs, though, declining in these channels? It may be that media inflation will eat into marketing efficiency, particularly if “targeting” data gets less precise and, as a result, relevance gets more elusive. Privacy restrictions, while well-meaning, are not always implemented in such a way that serve best consumers. Still, only 16% of businesses have reduced their spending and reliance on certain kinds of data as a result of new and potential data privacy regulations, Biegel reports.

So, come December 2020, will all of these predictions and concerns bear out? That’s one of the reasons I attend Bruce Biegel’s Annual Outlook at DMCNY each year. As great a prognosticator as he is and as on-target as his business, data, and economic models are — he’s always close enough to the market to say where struggles remain, where the work of data-driven marketing is hard, where hiccups happen, and the like. These are all of the many micro and macro reasons that any best of times can go awry.

His January 2020 predictions are now in the books — and we will all be back again in January 2021 — barring any hiccups.

Media Outlook 2019: Spell Marketing with a ‘D’

The January marketing calendar in New York has included for the past decade or so a certain can’t-miss event of the Direct Marketing Club of New York. In 60 fly-by minutes, 100-plus advertising and marketing professionals hear a review of the previous year in marketing spend, a media outlook for the current year and macro-economic trends driving both.

The January marketing calendar in New York has included for the past decade or so a certain can’t-miss event of the Direct Marketing Club of New York. In 60 fly-by minutes, 100-plus advertising and marketing professionals hear a review of the previous year in marketing spend, a media outlook for the current year and macro-economic trends driving both.

Bruce Biegel, senior managing director at Winterberry Group, keeps everyone engaged, taking notes and thinking about their own experiences in the mix of statistics regarding digital, mobile, direct mail, TV and programmatic advertising.

“We will be OK if we can manage the Shutdown, Trump, China, Mueller, Congress and Brexit,” he noted, all of which weigh on business confidence.

Suffice it to say, marketing organizations and business, in general must navigate an interesting journey. Biegel reports estimated U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.3 percent in 2019 down from 3 percent in 2018, while total marketing spending growth in 2018 had dipped below its historic level of exceeding two times GDP growth.

In 2019, we are poised for 5.3 percent growth in advertising and marketing spending a slight gain from the 5.2 percent growth of 2018 over 2017.

Watch the Super Bowl, By All Means But Offline Dominance Is Diminishing

Look under the hood, and you see what the big drivers are. Offline spending including sponsorships, linear TV, print, radio, outdoor and direct mail will spot anemic growth, combined, of 0.1 percent in 2019. (Of these, direct mail and sponsorships will each post growth of more than 3 percent, Winterberry Group predicts.)

But online spending growth display, digital video, social, email, digital radio, digital out-of-home, and search will grow by 15.5 percent. Has offline media across all categories finally reached its zenith? Perhaps. (See Figure 1.)

Figure 1.

Credit: Winterberry Group, 2019

Digital media spend achieved 50 percent of offline media spend for the first time in 2018. In 2019, it may reach 60 percent! So who should care?

We do! We are the livers and breathers of data, and data is in the driver’s seat. Biegel sees data spending growing by nearly 6 percent this year totaling $21.27 billion. Of this, $9.66 billion will be offline data spending, primarily direct mail. TV data spending (addressable, OTT) will reach $1.8 billion, digital data $7.85 billion, and email data spend $1.96 billion (see Figure 2.)

Figure 2.

Credit: Winterberry Group, 2019

Tortured CMOs: Unless She’s a Data Believer

Marketing today and tomorrow is not marketing yesterday. If marketing leadership does not recognize and understand data’s contribution to ad measurement, attribution and business objective ROI, then it’s time for a new generation to lead and succeed. Marketing today is spelled with a D: Data-Driven.

Unfortunately we don’t have all the data we need to manage Shutdown, Trump, China, Mueller, Congress and Brexit. That’s where sheer luck and gut instincts may still have a valid role. Sigh.

Toasting 2018 Silver Apple Honorees: In Their Words

You might have heard of a big event that happened last week in the USA. No, not THAT one. I’m talking about but the presentation of the Direct Marketing Club of New York’s 2018 Silver Apples honors. Here’s more about the awards, from the Silver Apple honorees themselves.

Silver Apple Honorees ballroom
Photo Credit: Edison Ballroom via DMCNY, 2018

You might have heard of a big event that happened last week in the USA. No, not THAT one. I’m talking about but the presentation of the Direct Marketing Club of New York’s 2018 Silver Apples honors. Here’s more about the awards, from the Silver Apple honorees themselves.

The Silver Apples recognize leadership, stewardship and business success mid-career in the data, direct and digital marketing field. Each honoree has (more or less) 25 years of experience, with matching achievements to point to … and all have additional contributions to our industry, community, mentoring and giving back.

With the assistance of newly named The Drum U.S. Editor Ginger Conlon, I thought it worth amplifying a few key industry insights shared by this year’s individual honorees:

Anita Absey, Chief Revenue Officer, Voxy (New York):

Favorite Data Story: “Back in the very early days when I was at Infobase, we were doing data overlays on customer databases, which was novel at the time. While working with a large insurer, doing overlays of demographic and socioeconomic data on their database, the profile and segmentation scheme that emerged from that work actually defied some of the assumptions that they had about the characteristics for their customers’ profile. The insights we provided them helped them make subtle changes in their communications and targeting to customers, which improved the overall risk profile of their customer base. It was gratifying to see how data could affirm or deny assumptions and enable our client to make decisions that helped improve the risk profile of their business.”

Measurement: “Hope is not a strategy. Your actions have to be data-based, not hopeful. Similarly, you can’t manage what you can’t measure. Unless you have data that points you to the actions and decisions that are best for the business, you’re running blind.”

Matt Blumberg, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Return Path, Inc. (New York):

On Choosing Marketing: “The thing that drew me to marketing was the Internet. I had been working as an investor at a venture capital firm that invested in software companies. Once Netscape went public and people started figuring out the short- and the long-term potential of the Internet, I got very excited about working in that field. Unbeknownst to me at the time, the Internet is all about direct marketing. For the first several years of my career, I would never have described myself as a direct marketer; but in hindsight, obviously, I was.”

On Inspiration: “It’s several sentences out of a speech by Theodore Roosevelt called ‘The Man in the Arena.’
It’s incredible. It goes:

” ‘ … The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.’

“I take it as the entrepreneur’s motto. It’s a beautiful passage that I have taped up everywhere.”

Pam Haas, Account Director, Experian Marketing Services (Providence, RI):

Overhyped: “Display and programmatic technologies are overhyped. It’s like the early days of email marketing: People just started sending millions of emails, hoping some would stick. The same thing is happening in display and programmatic. That part of the industry still needs to mature.”

Best Metric: “Right now, it’s the ROAS: Return on Ads Spent. I love that. For every dollar that the client is spending, we know that we are driving X number of dollars in sales.”

Career Advice: “Diversify. In marketing, there are so many different angles and specialties that you can focus your career on. Throughout my career, I’ve [been] able to gain experience in multiple facets of marketing: direct response, email technology, and in databases and modeling. Digital is so sexy right now, but the fundamentals still apply; so it’s important not to pigeonhole yourself into one area.

“While in a mentor program at Equifax, my mentor was a woman and she told me, ‘You have to be your own PR person. You have to make your accomplishments known, because nobody else is going to do that for you.’”

Keira Krausz, EVP and CMO, Nutrisystem, Inc. (Fort Washington, Penn.):

On Her Current Assignment: “I’m proud of where we are at Nutrisystem and I’m particularly proud of what we’ve built as a team. Our job is wonderful, because we get to help people live healthier and happier lives. Since 2013, we’ve nearly doubled the business, which means we’ve helped a whole lot more people get healthier and happier. Along the way, we’ve revamped nearly every aspect of our business that you can think of, and we’re just getting started.”

On Mentoring: “In my first years in marketing, I was always being asked what my goals were and how I saw myself in years to come, and I always felt flummoxed, because I didn’t know what to say. I wasn’t one of those young people who had their whole life planned out when I was 25, and I often felt insecure about that. But it turns out that was OK.

“So, one thing I did that I would advise is, from early on, try to work for someone you can learn from. Somebody who you admire, who has something unique, and who can teach you something that you think you’re missing. The rest will fall together.”

Tim Suther, SVP and General Manager, Data Solutions, Change Healthcare (Lombard, Ill.):

On Career Choice: “I’ve always been technology-oriented, from learning to code when I was 17 to graduating college with a finance degree. With that background, naturally, I was suspicious of marketing. A lot of marketing felt inauthentic and superficial to me. But I had this one moment where I actually saw a dynamic gains curve for the first time and I thought, ‘Oh my god, this is one of the most interesting things I’ve ever seen.’ It was the intersection of the art of marketing and the science of data that really drew me in; and boy, did I get lucky on that one, because that’s what it’s all about today.”

On Being Data-Driven: “This might surprise you a little bit, but it annoys me when marketers say that they’re data-driven, because that’s like saying, ‘OK, it’s time to turn off my brain and just let the data drive the story.’

“I think marketers are far better off when they are data-informed, where they’re combining what the data is telling them with their own business judgment to make the right decision. Human behavior is still too complicated to purely reduce to what an algorithm tells you to do; it has to be a combination of what the data is saying, creative savvy and business judgment.”

This year, DMCNY added two special awards not tied to mid-career, but recognizing two huge drivers in our business today: advocacy and disruption. The inaugural Apples of Excellence 2018 honorees include:

Advocacy:

Stu Ingis, Chairman, Venable LLP (Washington, D.C.):

On Policy-Making: “The whole privacy concern is overhyped. What’s not getting its fair recognition, in the policy world, is all of the innovation that the marketing community brings to society. For instance, they’re bringing real-time targeted marketing to television and delivering marketing communications that consumers are interested in on a personalized basis.”

On Careers: “Take the long view. Work really hard; don’t worry about the compensation or the glory, and then persevere. Stay with it. Don’t switch jobs all the time thinking that something else is always better. If you develop your skills, the good work will come to you. You don’t have to go to it.

“I’d been representing the DMA for about two years, and I had an opportunity to leave the law firm and go out in the early Internet age at Yahoo!

“Yahoo! stock was going up. I would have made millions of dollars a day. I went to Ron Plesser and said, ‘I like working for you; I like the clients; I like the work I’m doing. But I could go get really rich working for this company.’ He said, ‘Why do you want to do that? It’ll ruin your life.’ For whatever reason, I actually believed him and agreed with him. And I stayed at my job. It was probably the best decision I ever made. I don’t regret it for a second.”

Disruptor Award, Presented by Alliant:

Bonin Bough, Founder and Chief Growth Officer, Bonin Ventures (New York):

About Bonin: “His unique approach of applying innovative technology to create breakthrough campaigns helped to reinvigorate traditional marketing brands, such as Gatorade, Honey Maid, Oreo and Pepsi.

“But his influence doesn’t stop there. Bonin believes in supporting young talent and savvy entrepreneurs. While at Mondelēz International, for example, he created internal programs to mentor young talent and launched a startup innovation program, Mobile Futures, to provide a platform for marketing-tech and agency start-ups to work with the CPG giant.

“Stephanie Agresta, global director of enterprise growth at Qnary, describes him best in her recommendation on LinkedIn: ‘Bonin is a force of nature … A true rockstar from Cleveland to Cannes, Bonin has been [at] the forefront of the digital revolution from the beginning. Smart, successful, and connected, Bonin has the pulse on what’s next. Those that know Bonin well can also attest to his generosity, commitment to mentorship and a deep belief that anything is possible.’”

Since I had the privilege of interacting with Bonin at DMA &Then18 recently, I can attest the walls fall away when you converse with him. Disrupted, indeed.

All of these honorees as well as corporate recipient Winterberry Group have many things to teach us. That’s why it’s important we continue to recognize these business leaders, as marketing today, as Matt Blumberg says, is a 100 different things. It’s the business outcomes that matter.

Billion-Dollar Baby: Customer Data Onboarding

Last week, Bruce Biegel, senior managing director of Winterberry Group, led a Direct Marketing Club of New York discussion on “customer data onboarding.” It’s the process of linking offline data with online attributes (cookies, IP address, device IDs, non-cookie identifiers, among other identifiers) in order to perform any number of marketing use cases, what often is referred to as “data activation.”

This blog post opens with a 2014 local TEDx talk of Dr. Charles Stryker, who left us unexpectedly last month. To say the least, “Charlie’s” legacy as a data innovator, business leader and financier is very much alive, well and profound.

Dr. Stryker truly set a stage for what has transpired three years hence — and likely decades to come.

Last week, Bruce Biegel, senior managing director of Winterberry Group, led a Direct Marketing Club of New York discussion on “customer data onboarding.” It’s the process of linking offline data with online attributes (cookies, IP address, device IDs, non-cookie identifiers, among other identifiers) in order to perform any number of marketing use cases, what often is referred to as “data activation.”

These use cases for customer data onboarding most often include (but are not limited to) digital display targeting, “walled garden” targeting (such as ad targeting inside social media platforms), consumer analytics and insights, measurement and attribution, site personalization, and addressable television and online video targeting. (Readers, please don’t confuse customer data onboarding with customer onboarding — they are not interchangeable.)

Winterberry Group estimates this market to exceed $300 million today — but may eclipse $1 billion by 2020.

“Consumers are constantly connected,” Biegel said, noting each connection can generates volume and variety of data. “Today, the average consumer uses close to eight connected devices per day. One of my colleagues counts 22 connected devices!” Such connectivity generated close to 44 zettabytes of data in 2016 — and should more than quadruple that data generation to 180 zettabytes by 2020.

How do we structure these data to help recognize that customer from device to device in privacy responsible ways — to enable all these vital use cases? The answer, customer data onboarding.

Certainly, the big driver of customer data onboarding is brand engagement — all those use cases demanding customer identification and data quality to enable 1:1 prospect and customer communication. First-party data (a brand’s own data on its customers) needs supplemental third-party data (read, ad tech and data providers) to complete the customer view across connected devices, enhanced by offline data (often transactions).

Joining Biegel were panelists Anneka Gupta, co-president, LiveRamp; Kevin Whitcher, VP for product, Oracle; and Paul Chachko, CEO, Throtle — all of them representatives of distinct industry players in the customer data onboarding space.

In onboarding’s nascent days, according to the panelists, brands may have matched 5 percent to 10 percent of their offline-digital customer file — but today, such match rates have grown to 50 percent or more, depending on the device (mobile versus laptop, for instance), helped by more deterministic (certain match) and probabilistic (likely match) means for identifying unique individuals and households.

“Never trust a vendor who claims a mobile match close to 95 percent,” Chachko said. “Probably the best upper match rate we have [in mobile] is 75 percent.”

With individuals changing devices all the time, adding new ones and retiring old ones, moving inside and outside login environments, adding new email addresses while not necessarily discarding old ones — all of these data points help to inform a “consumer ID graph” that is increasingly person-specific (rather than household), according to the panel.

“It used to be [data onboarding companies] used these graphs to facilitate the data matching inside their operations,” Oracle’s Whitcher said. “Now more and more clients want to access and use the graphs themselves — it’s a new product offering in and of itself. … It all comes down to what does the brand want to do? Digital display targeting is the most common use case — but more marketing uses are emerging, such as attribution.” Mixed media attribution models are becoming more common.

In omnichannel marketing environments, CMO’s know that last-touch attribution falls short when consumer paths to purchase are so varied.

LiveRamp’s Gupta noted that addressable television is also gaining advertiser attention, but online video targeting is a very hot use case now.

As bullish panelists are toward customer data onboarding’s growth, not all brands are ready for the discipline of such data enhancement. “Global brands must worry about privacy rules, particularly in Europe,” Whitcher said, where European Union General Data Protection Regulation and ePrivacy Regulation loom.

Closer to home, many enterprises are not yet realigned around customer experience. Data siloes by channel, and by product, interfere with a full customer view — and these siloes must be broken before data integration and quality regimes — and the insights they produce — can be applied.

“Retail and financial services are perhaps the most mature adopters of customer data onboarding, largely because they were the earliest to invest in whole-customer views,” Gupta said.

Whitcher concurred on retail — noting that competing with Amazon has spurred all types of data innovations. He also noted that auto, travel, media and entertainment, and consumer packaged goods are also fast-rising in data onboarding use. “Not all sophisticated marketers are sophisticated data users,” he said.

“When we see clients fail, it’s because they bite off more than they can chew,” Gupta said. Data science requires testing, proof of concepts, data quality and rollout testing — all practices very familiar to traditional direct marketers, but not necessarily mass-market brands.

Still, the billion-dollar market is gaining steam — just like Charlie said it would.

Note: Also see from January 2017, “Customer Data Onboarding: Winterberry Group Publishes State of Market.”]

Customer Data Onboarding: Winterberry Group Publishes State of Market

In our data business, data onboarding is probably one of the hottest topics around — up there with cross-device/cross-platform and a continuing discipline for data quality and governance. But how do marketers accomplish onboarding (and why do they need to), and do so in a way that is affordable, accurate, scalable and responsible?

Data DrivenThe holidays are past — but there’s every likelihood consumer brands are dealing with an aftermath of data avalanche from all the points of customer engagement, screens, catalogs and mail, email, social, in-store, and more which just found their way into (or very near) the marketing database. Whew!

One of the hottest tech areas for “whole customer view” is customer data onboarding: “The process of matching (temporarily linking) owned consumer data (PII) with consumers’ corresponding digital attributes (such as cookies, IP addresses, device IDs and other identifiers) to create a cohesive and comprehensive identity for more actionable marketing.”

That’s a definition provided by Winterberry Group in its recent white paper, “The State of Consumer Data Onboarding: Identity Resolution in an Omnichannel Environment,” authored by Bruce Biegel, Alex Sheidler and Gina Maggi. The report is downloadable here (free registration required).

In our data business, data onboarding is probably one of the hottest topics around — up there with cross-device/cross-platform and a continuing discipline for data quality and governance. But how do marketers accomplish onboarding (and why do they need to) – and do so in a way that is affordable, accurate, scalable and responsible?http://www.winterberrygroup.com/our-insights/state-consumer-data-onboarding-identity-resolution-omnichannel-environmentIn speaking with data, marketing and legal minds from nearly 20 companies, Winterberry Group sought to provide a framework for answering this very question — while providing use cases, underlying value and considerations of emerging, maturing and mature marketing organizations in this effort. “As more marketers adopt omnichannel approaches, the U.S. onboarding market has subsequently grown from an estimated $30 million in 2012 to $250 million in 2016 and is forecast to reach $1 billion in 2020,” according to the executive summary from the report.

Given that the entirety of the current U.S. data expenditure market is $12.8 billion (according to another new Winterberry Group report, “Outlook for Data-Driven Marketing 2017”), that’s a growing proportion of resources being set aside to stage, merge and derive insights from data for advertising and marketing purposes.

Beyond the white paper, this particular company conference has emerged as one you might consider attending: RampUp Live! 2017 in San Francisco in early March.

The consumer is everywhere — screen, mobile, social, offline — and she expects to be recognized! Doing so is a top business concern, but it must be done sustainably.